Portfolio Update: Four Moves, One Theme ...

Why I decided to act, what I bought, and what I’m paying close attention to next.

I’ve made a few moves in the past several days – more than usual, actually. I reduced my cash position a bit and initiated or adjusted four stock positions. Each one reflects a different kind of opportunity.

This isn’t about a major portfolio overhaul or a dramatic change in strategy. If anything, it’s the opposite: a continuation of the same process I’ve followed for years – staying patient, sifting through noise, and pulling the trigger when the setup feels asymmetric enough to justify the risk.

Still, four transactions in close succession is unusual for me; but in a way this elevated activity is also reflecting that I was sitting on quite a bit of “dry powder” – more than I usually do.

Each transaction required some serious thinking. Some pushed me outside my typical investment comfort zone. Others are more in line with what I’ve done before, but with new twists worth sharing.

In the rest of this post, I’ll walk you through these recent decisions: why I reentered a controversial name I’d previously exited, what made me take a swing at a company with growing AI exposure, why I added to a steady compounder at what I think is an attractive multiple, and what led me to buy – and then quickly sell – shares in a fast-scaling IPO story.

Let’s dive into the first one.

Disclaimer: The analysis presented in this blog may be flawed and/or critical information may have been overlooked. The content provided should be considered an educational resource and should not be construed as individualized investment advice, nor as a recommendation to buy or sell specific securities. I may own some of the securities discussed. The stocks, funds, and assets discussed are examples only and may not be appropriate for your individual circumstances. It is the responsibility of the reader to do their own due diligence before investing in any index fund, ETF, asset, or stock mentioned or before making any sell decisions. Also double-check if the comments made are accurate. You should always consult with a financial advisor before purchasing a specific stock and making decisions regarding your portfolio.

1st Transaction: Back in the Saddle – Revisiting Brockhaus After the Storm

In May, I reentered Brockhaus Technologies. It wasn’t a decision I took lightly, and certainly not one I made on impulse. But after stepping away from the stock amid concerns about accounting irregularities earlier this year, I felt the balance of risk and reward had shifted meaningfully – not because the business had become flawless overnight, but because some of the key uncertainties had been addressed in a way that demanded a second look.

I covered the full context of my reentry and laid out the pros and cons in much more detail in a separate write-up on the blog, so I won’t rehash every line here. But the short version is this: while the fog has lifted somewhat (more on this below), this is still a stock that lives and dies by execution. And execution in the face of sector headwinds, not just internal housekeeping.

Let’s start with the elephant in the room: the accounting issues. For a few weeks, the market had been grappling with doubts about transparency and reliability after signs of irregularities at one of Brockhaus’ subsidiaries, IHSE. These casted a shadow over the credibility of the entire group, especially in a structure like Brockhaus’, which relies heavily on a decentralized portfolio of high-margin, cash-generative businesses. If trust breaks down at one node, it can quickly infect the whole system, and after I reached out to the IR team, it wasn’t even clear whether the issues were an isolated IHSE event.

So why come back now?

The decisive factor for me was clarity. A little later the company confirmed that the problems were contained to IHSE and that the Bikeleasing subgroup – arguably the crown jewel in the portfolio – had not only passed its audit, but had done so with the kind of approval language that gives you confidence:

“As of today, the 2024 statutory financial statements of all three operationally relevant companies within the Bikeleasing sub-group have been audited by the local auditors and received unqualified audit opinions.”

This was a firm signal that one of the most economically significant parts of Brockhaus is still under proper oversight. That doesn’t eliminate risk, of course. But it materially reduces the tail risk of hidden landmines across the group, and that was enough to get me re-engaged.

Of course, an audit opinion is just one piece of the puzzle. The next question was whether the actual fundamentals were holding up – and here, the May 30th update from Brockhaus offered an encouraging data point. The KPI I track most closely for Bikeleasing is the number of connected companies using its digital platform. This figure captures adoption, penetration, and growth in a way that top-line revenue often doesn’t, especially in a segment where customers basically don’t switch.

The latest update showed that the number of corporate clients continues to grow at a healthy clip:

“As of March 31, 2025, the number of companies connected to Bikeleasing's digital platform was approximately 74,000 (+18.9% LTM growth), with around 3.8 million employed staff (+10.8% LTM growth).”

That’s not the kind of growth you’d expect from a business that’s quietly breaking down behind the scenes. It’s the kind of progress that suggests a strong value proposition still exists and that demand for Bikeleasing’s services remains robust – despite everything else happening in the sector. Moreover, management also indicated that momentum was picking up in April and early May.

And yet, this is not a stock I feel I can own passively.

In fact, if there’s a spectrum between companies you trust to quietly compound and companies you feel the need to babysit, Brockhaus is definitely the latter – and I don’t say that lightly. Contrast it with a name like Wise in my portfolio, where the exercise of reading quarterly updates feels more like confirming a hypothesis than trying to detect a potential blow-up.

I recently wrote the following in my update on Wise:

“Every portfolio has its needy stocks – the ones that seem to require constant attention, where each earnings call might reveal a twist or signal a derailment. You watch them closely, read between the lines, scrutinize segment margins, and debate strategy with yourself. They're not necessarily bad businesses, but they often come with more moving parts, more competitive risk, or more volatility in execution (which may have led to an attractive valuation in the first place). Then there’s the other bucket: the ones you don’t have to babysit. You check in, not out of fear something’s gone wrong, but out of habit and discipline. These companies quietly go about compounding intrinsic value.”

Wise is squarely in that second bucket. Brockhaus? It demands attention. And I’m okay with that – for now.

Finally, the bike industry, where Bikeleasing operates, isn’t exactly riding high at the moment.

In fact, when you zoom out and look at the broader landscape, there’s a very real structural unwind playing out. I came across an article that dissected the current state of companies like Canyon and Bike24 – both of which have strong brand recognition but are now facing what looks like an industry-wide reset. Here's a snapshot from that piece (translated with DeepL):

“Declining sales, covenant breaches, write-downs: Private equity has little fun with bicycle assets at the moment. [...] Groupe Bruxelles Lambert (GBL) wrote down the value of its portfolio company Canyon by almost 200 million euros. [...] Bike24 has also had a challenging few months, marked by declining sales, covenant breaches and an early CFO departure.”

The key takeaway? The boom from 2021 and 2022, driven by COVID-era demand spikes and supply chain paranoia, led to over-ordering, bloated inventories, and now – somewhat predictably – a correction. And while Bikeleasing is a platform business, not a direct bike retailer or manufacturer, it still sits inside the same ecosystem. If leasing demand slows, the impact will ripple through.

Still, not all signals point to doom.

In fact, if you look closely at Bike24, there are signs that the worst may be behind them. Their Q1 numbers were surprisingly solid:

“Group revenue increases by 17.8% to EUR 58.0 million; Double-digit revenue growth in all European regions – very strong core market in Germany, Austria and Switzerland and successful localisation in Poland and Finland.”

And just days ago, they raised guidance for the full year, citing strong market share gains, improving product availability, and favorable weather conditions:

“Bike24 Holding AG is raising its revenue forecast for the current fiscal year in light of continued strong business momentum. [...] The company expects Q2 2025 to deliver the highest quarterly revenue in its history.”

So maybe, the worst is behind the bike industry. That makes me more willing to hold onto Brockhaus – but only conditionally. I still expect the next 12 months to be challenging, and if the management team – particularly Marco Brockhaus – fails to navigate them with transparency and discipline, I’ll have no problem exiting again.

This is where the qualitative matters just as much as the quantitative. A big part of the success of this position will come down to character judgment. Is Marco Brockhaus truly aligned with long-term shareholders? Will the company handle bumps in the road with humility and transparency? I don’t know yet. But I’m watching closely.

For now, the position sits at 8.8% of my portfolio. That’s sizable, but not oversized. It reflects conviction, but also acknowledges risk. I’m not betting the farm, but I’m not hiding either.

This is what it means to manage a dynamic portfolio. You don’t just buy great businesses and disappear for a decade. You listen. You adjust. You pay attention when attention is required.

And in the case of Brockhaus, attention is very much required right now (hopefully, this changes a few years down the line).

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