Wix at $100: A Good Business in a Bad Narrative?
What If the Market Is Wrong About Wix? A Deep Dive into Q3, AI Risk and Valuation.
When I published my last “Wix revisited” essay, the stock had fallen roughly 50% from its euphoric $240 high down to the $130s (I linked the Q2 update below).
Is Wix a Buy After the 50% Price Drop?
As some of my long-term readers might remember, Wix has been a meaningful part of my investing journey. I first bought shares at around $80, added more below $60, and eventually sold earlier this year. Even though I missed the euphoric peak above $230 in January, my exit was still at a healthy profit. It was never a perfect trade – very few are – but it was a good outcome.
That moment already felt like a reckoning – a point where valuation discipline started catching up with a business that had grown rapidly but also carried big expectations at a price >$230/share.
But even then, I thought the stock had probably overshot to the downside. What I didn’t expect was that Wix would revisit the $100 level ever again, let alone in late 2025, after multiple quarters of accelerating fundamentals. And yet here we are. Wix now trades below $100 a share, back to a level last seen during the late-2023 reset, almost two years ago.
If I’ve learned anything over the years, it’s that the market rarely stops surprising you. A company can execute, raise guidance, expand cohorts, introduce entirely new product categories and still see its equity value chopped in half if the narrative shifts. That’s exactly what’s unfolding. The business is getting better while the sentiment is getting worse. That disconnect is the starting point for this post.
When I revisited Wix after Q2, my conclusion was straightforward: Wix at $120 looked attractive on paper, but I wasn’t excited to bet on it again, or even size it in any meaningful way. The IRR math is certainly more compelling now below $100, where the gap between price and underlying business quality starts to show, but there are also some qualitative concern I have (to be discussed below).
So in a nutshell, the valuation has compressed further, the business momentum has strengthened, and the market has fixated even more aggressively on the existential AI question. This is why I figured I need to update my valuation model and qualitative insights once again.
There’s arguably a central tension: Either this is an above-average business on sale, or the discount is deserved because a structural risk is building. Investors rarely get this much signal and this much uncertainty in the same moment. My job now is to separate the noise from the structural.
Here’s what will be covered:
A complete re-evaluation of Wix’s valuation, including annualized 9M metrics, updated margin structure, and a fresh IRR model rooted in multiple forward scenarios
A deep look at the Q3 results, showing how revenue, bookings, partners, commerce, and FCF are all accelerating even as the stock sells off
A clear explanation of how Base44 is scaling faster than almost any AI-native product in the category
A discussion of the Q3 earnings call revealing management’s thinking on:
the future of vibe coding
AI compute cost curves
a delayed flagship product
cohort behavior and funnel strength
how Wix is preparing for the LLM-indexed web
A balanced and brutally honest discussion of the AI tail risk, including the strongest arguments against Wix
An equally candid look at the bullish counter-arguments built on user behavior, switching costs, agency economics, and why small businesses don’t abandon fully configured storefronts to save $20–30 per month
A detailed assessment of Wix’s strategic positioning in an AI-mediated web, including the role of partners, the durability of cohorts, and the economics of business applications
A realistic synthesis of the overarching question: Is Wix being priced like a melting-ice-cube in a world where the underlying business is actually strengthening?
This is where it gets interesting:
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