Many thanks for your in depth on Novo Nordisk. I could add two further risks which might already be in the price.
1. Donald Trump has promised to do whatever it takes to bring Greenland into US ownership. Greenland is currently part of Denmark. What of the possibility that Trump imposes massive tariffs on Danish products or Danish companies in order to extort Greenland from Denmark - "give me your island full of mineral resources or I'll burn your house down"
2. The US has a new Secretary of Health and Human Services. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is known as a sceptic on traditional healthcare treatments and in particular as a sceptic re. vaccines. How do we assess the possibility that he halt the availability of Novo's obesity treatments in the US. Halting access to insulin would be more difficult but even there he could insist on US suppliers.
The combination of Trump and Robert Kennedy presents a serious unquantifiable risk to Novo. Having said which I have held for some time and expect to continue to do so. Your excellent analysis just confirmed much of what is good about the company
Reply to 1. Any tariffs targeting an EU country will be met with reciprocal EU wide tariffs. Greenland is also not Denmark’s to give away or sell, it is an autonomous region that can invoke independence at any time through referendum. Greenland hardly has any trade with the US so is not affected by any US tariffs imposed on them. Only way to conquer Greenland is by declaring war with a NATO ally, a doomsday scenario which would have far wider consequences for all western economies. As stated in the article, Novo Nordisk has production within the US to meet US demand. Seems as though diabetes medication is more important to the US than the US is to Denmark. Trump is no stranger to destructive acts, but will leave to others to judge a proper risk premium to apply.
Many thanks for your in depth on Novo Nordisk. I could add two further risks which might already be in the price.
1. Donald Trump has promised to do whatever it takes to bring Greenland into US ownership. Greenland is currently part of Denmark. What of the possibility that Trump imposes massive tariffs on Danish products or Danish companies in order to extort Greenland from Denmark - "give me your island full of mineral resources or I'll burn your house down"
2. The US has a new Secretary of Health and Human Services. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is known as a sceptic on traditional healthcare treatments and in particular as a sceptic re. vaccines. How do we assess the possibility that he halt the availability of Novo's obesity treatments in the US. Halting access to insulin would be more difficult but even there he could insist on US suppliers.
The combination of Trump and Robert Kennedy presents a serious unquantifiable risk to Novo. Having said which I have held for some time and expect to continue to do so. Your excellent analysis just confirmed much of what is good about the company
Reply to 1. Any tariffs targeting an EU country will be met with reciprocal EU wide tariffs. Greenland is also not Denmark’s to give away or sell, it is an autonomous region that can invoke independence at any time through referendum. Greenland hardly has any trade with the US so is not affected by any US tariffs imposed on them. Only way to conquer Greenland is by declaring war with a NATO ally, a doomsday scenario which would have far wider consequences for all western economies. As stated in the article, Novo Nordisk has production within the US to meet US demand. Seems as though diabetes medication is more important to the US than the US is to Denmark. Trump is no stranger to destructive acts, but will leave to others to judge a proper risk premium to apply.
That‘s two excellent additions! Thanks.
Great article! Update on Pfizer: they have closed trials for their obesity product and move on to other drugs.
Thus, there is Amgen as the only company to enter the duopoly market.
Thanks for sharing Carsten.
Fantastic , thanks
Thanks Fernando!
Amazing in-depth post. Restacked. And I might even find time over Easter to read the whole thing!
I appreciate that, Joel! Enjoy your Easter holidays.
I‘ve personally come to the conclusion that it is!