Meta's Path to a $10 Trillion Market Capitalization: A Bold Thought Experiment?
Unlike some of my peers, I rarely focus on labeling stocks with grandiose labels such as "This is the next 10x stock!" or even "A stock with 100x potential.!"
Instead, I prefer more grounded targets, such as a doubling over five years, which implies an attractive compounded annual return of roughly 15%.
However, for the sake of intellectual curiosity, I recently explored an intriguing scenario involving Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META 0.00%↑ ) and its potential to reach a $10 trillion market cap over the next 10-20 years (a 6.5x).
Here’s a breakdown of my reasoning, framed as an engaging thought experiment rather than a definitive prediction.
Meta Today: A Snapshot
Meta Platforms currently boasts a market capitalization of approximately $1.6 trillion.
The company is well-known for its dominance in social media through platforms like Facebook, Instagram, Threads, and WhatsApp, as well as its emerging focus on virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and artificial intelligence (AI) – even though these segments don’t represent meaningful portions of Meta’s overall revenue yet.
Here’s why I believe Meta has the potential to reach a $10 trillion valuation over the next 10-20 years – I’ll highlight five factors worth tracking:
1. AR as the Next Computing Platform
I am optimistic about Meta's role in augmented reality, which I believe will become the next major computing platform. While Meta might not achieve margins similar to Apple (which thrives on squeezing maximum profit from hardware sales), its philosophy of owning the platform could lead to substantial free cash flow (FCF) growth.
For context, Apple generated $108 billion in FCF over the last twelve months …
…. with just around a 20% share of the smartphone market (depending on which dataset you look at).
Meta's AR glasses are currently best-in-class (litereally unmatched!), and as AR adoption grows, Meta could capture a larger share of this emerging market.
If you’re not convinced of how far ahead Meta is ahead of its competition, I recommend you check out both MKBHD’s recent comparison video of Meta & $SNAP's AR offerings …
… as well as videos highlighting how amazing Meta’s Orion glasses are (“Our First True Augmented Reality Glasses“):
If AR becomes the dominant computing platform, it could unlock billions of dollars in additional FCF for Meta.