Deep Dive: A Misunderstood Founder-Led Acquirer Trading <10 Fwd. FCF
Revenue per share CAGR of 22.4% over nine years!
In 2025, I mostly found myself hunting for ideas outside the US. Europe. The UK specifically. Asia. Smaller markets where prices are still way more attractive relative to US peers. Moreover, somewhat paradoxically, currencies seemed less fragile, and valuations are often less distorted by narrative-driven capital flows. The US, by contrast, felt crowded, noisy, and increasingly difficult to underwrite with conviction.
Then, last week, my investing friend Andrew Brown dropped a short pitch in a private WhatsApp group. Nothing flashy. No pitch deck. Just a few concise messages that hinted at a misunderstood business trading at a valuation that didn’t quite make sense as the underlying earnings engine is still hidden, suppressed by massive growth reinvestments in physical assets. That was enough to pull me back into US equities – and into what turned out to be one of the most intellectually demanding ideas I’ve looked at in a long time.
What I didn’t fully appreciate at the start was the commitment required. This wasn’t a single business with clean segment reporting and tidy unit economics. It was a founder-led holding company. To understand it properly, I had to study multiple businesses at once: a cash-generative legacy segment with near-monopolistic local positions, a capital-intensive infrastructure build-out with multi-year delayed payoffs, a niche insurance platform with asymmetric risk, and some minority investments (one actually being the third biggest business if you consider revenue attributable to this company and representing a meaningful portion of the current market cap).
Fun times if you enjoy studying businesses.
Every layer I peeled back made the picture both clearer and more complicated. And yet, the more I dug, the more compelling the setup became. Here is a company where reported profits look mediocre, free cash flow looks messy, and governance noise has scared away impatient investors – while underneath, tangible assets quietly compound, and capital allocation starts to shift toward buybacks at depressed prices. Here is a business where the downside seems anchored by real infrastructure and recurring cash flows, while the upside is driven by operating leverage, network effects, and optionality that the market struggles to model.
Somewhere between “too boring to care” and “too complex to value,” I stumbled upon a rare kind of opportunity: a business that only reveals its economics if you’re willing to sit with it long enough.
In the sections that follow – my longest deep dive ever –, I’ll unpack why this company might be far better than its stock price suggests (currently the stock is in a 74% drawdown and has been down four years in a row).
“Bam Bam Bam Bam Bam” – The 90-Second Pitch
The full story starts here:
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Disclaimer: The analysis presented in this blog may be flawed and/or critical information may have been overlooked. The content provided should be considered an educational resource and should not be construed as individualized investment advice, nor as a recommendation to buy or sell specific securities. I may own some of the securities discussed. The stocks, funds, and assets discussed are examples only and may not be appropriate for your individual circumstances. It is the responsibility of the reader to do their own due diligence before investing in any index fund, ETF, asset, or stock mentioned or before making any sell decisions. Also double-check if the comments made are accurate. You should always consult with a financial advisor before purchasing a specific stock and making decisions regarding your portfolio.