An Underfollowed $3 Billion Monopoly Company!
A Hidden US Software Monopoly Stock That Went Nowhere for 7 Years While Its Business Quadrupled
Here’s a puzzle to start today’s analysis with:
Imagine a software monopoly company that nearly quadrupled its revenue, from around $250 million to almost a billion dollars over the last nine years.
Yet, the stock itself rewarded its shareholders with precisely nothing. The stock is flat versus where it traded in July 2019. Seven years of really strong compounding growth, seven years of dead money.
In fact, more recently, it’s down 64% from its high as I write this (update: in fact, the stock ended yesterday’s trading session down 5%, bringing the total drawdown closer to 70% as of July 23, 2026).
Interesting setup!
On paper, that pairing shouldn’t be possible (or at the least not rational), and when a market hands you a monopoly business growing that fast – revenue compounded at nearly 20% over the last ten years and the PEG ratio sits below 1x – at a price that’s gone nowhere, the interesting question is whether the market knows something you don’t, or whether it is making a mistake and mispricing this equity.
I think it might be the second one, and this post is my attempt to prove myself wrong before I let myself believe it.
I’m going to share the name behind the paywall, but before we do I wanted to let you know what follows, because I committed a lot of hours to create another incredibly thorough analysis.
What this deep dive covers:
We cover the key thesis in about 8,000 words:
The five-part bull case (”Bam Bam Bam Bam Bam”)
What went wrong
The one event that I watch for that could create a generational buying opportunity
Investment Slide Deck – the deep dive in a highly compressed + visualized form
Every deep dive now comes with a companion slide deck. It’s the whole argument in compressed form – the hypothesis, the business, the competitive position, the valuation, and the case against – for the days when you don’t have an hour to spare but still want the shape of the thing. Paid subscribers get both, the long piece and the deck, on every deep dive from here on.
If you then want to dig deeper, we cover the business, the management team, detailed valuation work, etc. in the subsequent sections (another 10,000 words).
The origin story
The business itself
Unit economics analysis
The customer
Legal structure, cyclicality, and operating leverage
The moat
Is it a good business in a good industry
Management and governance
Growth drivers and forecasting
Margins outlook
Valuation (including two downloadable models)
Other interesting findings
This is where it gets interesting!
Become a paying subscriber to read the rest of this post and get access to all of my other research, including valuation spreadsheets, deep dives (e.g. well-known mid- and large caps such as LVMH, Duolingo, Meta, Edenred as well as more hidden gems such as Tiger Brokers, Digital Ocean, Ashtead Technologies, InPost, Timee, and MANY more), and powerful investing frameworks.
As a member, you get:
Complete Access: Every deep dive in our library (65+ and counting).
More Content: Company updates; powerful valuation spreadsheets, frameworks, and processes; regular portfolio updates (insights into my investing decisions); market commentary; etc.
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If you want to see the level of research we provide before committing, the following deep dives are, for instance, free to read (access them via The Library):
InPost ($INPST) - generated an IRR of >400% as an acquisition offer emerged 2-3 months post write-up
DigitalOcean ($DOCN) - up 5x in less than a year post write-up release
I will also attach one testimonial that meant the world to me when I first saw it because Jake Barfield is a professional fund manager whose philosophy is very much aligned with my own, and the analyses he shares are always of the highest quality!
